RVBusiness, September/October 2018

BY S H E RMA N G O L D E N B E R G STATE OF THE ART All Things Considered Looking at Both the Positive and Negative Variables on the Table The RV Arena May Set More Records in 2018 A 8 RVBusiness S E P T E M B E R O C T O B E R 2 0 1 8 STAFF PUBLISHER Sherman Goldenberg 574 457 3370 sgoldenberg@ rvbusiness com CHIEF REVENUE OFFICER Gregg Fore 574 266 7980 ext 15 gfore@ g gmediagroup com EDITOR Bruce Hampson 574 266 7980 ext 13 bhampson@ rvbusiness com ART DIRECTOR Trina Nissley 574 266 7980 ext 12 tnissley@ rvbusiness com MANAGING EDITOR Rick Kessler 734 777 6830 rkessler@ rvbusiness com MIDWEST EDITOR Ben Quiggle 574 306 7781 bquiggle@ g gmediagroup com WEB EDITOR Dave Barbulesco 574 220 1049 barbulesco@ gmail com SENIOR EDITOR Bob Ashley 765 675 4106 writer892@ aol com PHOTOGRAPHY DIRECTOR Shawn Spence 317 843 2114 shawn@ shawnspence com CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Ron Barger Cean Burgeson Chris Hemer SR RV INDUSTRY ANALYST Mike Schneider 805 223 0898 mschneider@ masassociatesinc com RV INDUSTRY LIAISON B J Thompson 574 255 5000 bjthompson@ bjta com EDITORIAL BUSINESS OFFICE RVBUSINESS G G MEDIA GROUP LLC 2901 E Bristol Street Suite B Elkhart IN 46514 800 831 1076 574 266 7980 Fax 574 266 7984 ADVERTISING NATIONAL AD SALES Ally Kollat 800 831 1076 574 266 7980 ext 11 akollat@ rvbusiness com Wendy Thorne 800 831 1076 574 266 7980 ext 14 wthorne@ rvbusiness com CUSTOMER SERVICE Call 800 831 1076 Email rvbusiness@ rvbusiness com SUBSCRIPTIONS To subscribe electronically log onto www rvbusiness com and click on the Subscriptions icon below the masthead then follow the prompts for New Subscription Renewal or Change of Address Alternately forward your company name your name and title address phone number and email address to RVBusiness Subscriptions 2901 East Bristol Street Suite B Elkhart IN 46514 or forward this information to rvbusiness@ rvbusiness com RVBusiness is published bimonthly by G G Media Group LLC 2901 East Bristol Street Suite B Elkhart IN 46514 Postage paid at Elkhart IN 46515 Subscription rates Subscriptions for U S and Canada are 39 for one year Single copies are 650 each Postmaster send address changes to RVBusiness 2901 East Bristol Street Suite B Elkhart IN 46514 Publication Sales Agreement No 1938495 Canadian return address G G Media Group LLC 2901 East Bristol Street Suite B Elkhart IN 46514 RVBusiness is copyrighted 2011 by G G Media Group LLC in the United States Canada Great Britian and other countries All rights reserved Permission to reprint or quote excerpts granted only upon written request Advertising rates and Editorial calendars are provided upon request GROUP G LLC Recreational Vehicle Aftermarket Association s the RVBusiness staff scrambled to get this Elkhart RV Open House record breaking issue 212 pages out the door led by RVB Editor Bruce Hampson and Art Director Trina Nissley the North American RV industry was obviously still in a wait and see mode with regard to the industrys outlook Tentative might be an apt description And its understandable given the fact that weve all been buffeted by reports of workforce issues volatile gas prices high field inventories and rampant component price hikes triggered in large part by newly introduced tariffs Then in working on this issue we get a decidedly different picture on and off the record from respected industry voices like Thor Industries Inc President and CEO Bob Martin Forest River Inc CEO Pete Liegl Keystone RV Co President Jeff Runels Forest River Group General Manager Doug Gaeddert and Grand Design President and CEO Don Clark all of whom seem convinced that the industrys outlook is quite robust despite all those factors mentioned above that likely contributed to Junes 109 overall dip in June to June RV wholesale shipments As a matter of fact the general consensus weve picked up is that due in large part to strong retail demand and a resilient consumer following that continues to help draw down field inventories on a fairly consistent basis the RV arenas actual prognosis will more likely reflect a trend evident in Julys RVIA wholesale shipment report as RVBusiness went to press a reciprocal 109 hike in July to July shipments with year to date wholesale numbers still 65 ahead of last year Its enough to give you whiplash Not to overstate things but based on what were hearing and looking at all the factors involved the general speculation among informed industry sources at this point is that the RV industry may well approach if not exceed 2017 s all time record shipment performance of 504599 units itself a 172 gain from 430691 units shipped in 2016 After Junes monthly decrease from last year there were a lot of conversations that we the industry had reached the peak that supply and demand had equalized and that market growth was likely behind us said RVB Chief Revenue Officer Gregg Fore a former Dicor exec and RVIA chairman asked to speculate on the industrys general directions from his perspective Now seeing Julys numbers it appears the talk was all for naught and teaches us all once again to take some time before reaching conclusions When asked a month ago about June numbers many industry participants were quick to tell us that June was in fact an anomaly a balance taking place and that both the retail and wholesale markets remained strong and the underlying statistics were very good he added It certainly looks like the nice shipment increase in July bears out those opinions as most all vehicle types remain strong This is a great signal for our industry as we head into the Elkhart RV Open House Week and the fall season Manufacturers have added significant capacity in the last year improving product availability and allowing dealers to better balance and in some cases reduce inventories without the penalty of losing sales Fore concluded In the long run this allows the industry to react faster and better to the endcustomer which likely means more sales opportunities and market expansion The RV industry continues to show its health and the strength of the overall economy specifically our target demographics and certainly continues to show that Americans love camping RVing and the great outdoors RVB Sherman Goldenberg is publisher of RVBusiness magazine and RVBUSINESS COM now relocated in the RV manufacturing center of Elkhart Ind M E D I A